# The problem of induction 3.3

“Everything has no patterns” (or “there are no laws”) creates a paradox.

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If “there are 100% no first order laws”, then it is itself a second order law (the law of no first-order laws), allowing you to use probability theory.

In this sense, probability theory is a second order law: the law of “there are 100% no first order laws”.

In this sense, probability theory is not for a single event, but statistical, for a meta-event: a collection of events.

Using meta-event patterns to predict the next single event, that is induction.

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Induction is a kind of risk minimization.

— Me@2012-11-05 12:23:24 PM

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# The problem of induction 3.1.2

Square of opposition

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“everything has a pattern”?

“everything follows some pattern” –> no paradox

“everything follows no pattern” –> paradox

— Me@2012.11.05

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My above statements are meaningless, because they lack a precise meaning of the word “pattern”. In other words, whether each statement is correct or not, depends on the meaning of “pattern”.

In common usage, “pattern” has two possible meanings:

1. “X has a pattern” can mean that “X has repeated data“.

Since the data set X has repeated data, we can simplify X’s description.

For example, there is a die. You throw it a thousand times. The result is always 2. Then you do not have to record a thousand 2’s. Instead, you can just record “the result is always 2”.

2. “X has a pattern” can mean that “X’s are totally random, in the sense that individual result cannot be precisely predicted“.

Since the data set X is totally random, we can simplify the description using probabilistic terms.

For example, there is a die. You throw it a thousand times. The die lands on any of the 6 faces 1/6 of the times. Then you do not have to record those thousand results. Instead, you can just record “the result is random” or “the die is fair”.

— Me@2018-12-18 12:34:58 PM

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# The problem of induction 3.2

The meaning of induction is that

we regard, for example, that

“AAAAA –> the sixth is also A”

is more likely than

“AA –> the second is also A”

We use induction to find “patterns”. However, the induced results might not be true. Then, why do we use induction at all?

There is everything to win but nothing to lose.

— Hans Reichenbach

If the universe has some patterns, we can use induction to find those patterns.

But if the universe has no patterns at all, then we cannot use any methods, induction or else, to find any patterns.

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However, to find patterns, besides induction, what are the other methods?

What is meaning of “pattern-finding methods other than induction”?

— Me@2012.11.05

— Me@2018.12.10

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# The problem of induction 3

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In a sense (of the word “pattern”), there is always a pattern.

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Where if there are no patterns, everything is random?

Then we have a meta-pattern; we can use probability laws:

In that case, every (microscopic) case is equally probable. Then by counting the possible number of microstates of each macrostate, we can deduce that which macrostate is the most probable.

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Where if not all microstates are equally probable?

Then it has patterns directly.

For example, we can deduce that which microstate is the most probable.

— Me@2012.11.05

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# 神的旨意 2.4

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— Me@2018-09-02 03:05:45 PM

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# Laplace’s Determinism

If everything is determined (by its causes), there is no free will.

If everything is random (aka not determined), there is also no free will.

If there is free will, it is neither cases.

— Me@2011.08.20

— Me@2018-02-27

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# Creative constraints

Imagine you were asked to invent something new. It could be whatever you want, made from anything you choose, in any shape or size. That kind of creative freedom sounds so liberating, doesn’t it? Or … does it?

If you’re like most people you’d probably be paralyzed by this task. Why?

Brandon Rodriguez explains how creative constraints actually help drive discovery and innovation.

With each invention, the engineers demonstrated an essential habit of scientific thinking – that solutions must recognize the limitations of current technology in order to advance it.

Understanding constraints guides scientific progress, and what’s true in science is also true in many other fields.

Constraints aren’t the boundaries of creativity, but the foundation of it.

— The power of creative constraints

— Lesson by Brandon Rodriguez

— animation by CUB Animation

— TED-Ed

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We cannot change anything until we accept it. Condemnation does not liberate, it oppresses.

— Carl Jung

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# Twelve-step program

A twelve-step program is a set of guiding principles outlining a course of action for recovery from addiction, compulsion, or other behavioral problems. Originally proposed by Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) as a method of recovery from alcoholism, the Twelve Steps were first published in the 1939 book Alcoholics Anonymous: The Story of How More Than One Hundred Men Have Recovered from Alcoholism. The method was adapted and became the foundation of other twelve-step programs.

As summarized by the American Psychological Association, the process involves the following:

– recognizing a higher power that can give strength;

– examining past errors with the help of a sponsor (experienced member);

– making amends for these errors;

– learning to live a new life with a new code of behavior;

– helping others who suffer from the same alcoholism, addictions or compulsions.

— Wikipedia on Twelve-step program

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We cannot change anything until we accept it. Condemnation does not liberate, it oppresses.

— Carl Jung

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# 深淵 2

— 尼采

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As soon as men decide that all means are permitted to fight an evil, then their good becomes indistinguishable from the evil that they set out to destroy.

— Christopher Dawson

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2018.02.16 Friday ACHK

# Utopia

So why bother with all this pessimism?

Because at their heart, dystopias
are cautionary tales,

or technology,

but the very idea that humanity can be
molded into an ideal shape.

Think back to the perfect world
you imagined.

Did you also imagine what it would
take to achieve?

How would you make people cooperate?

And how would you make sure it lasted?

Now take another look.

Does that world still seem perfect?

— How to recognize a dystopia

— Alex Gendler

— animation by TED-Ed

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

2018.01.23 Tuesday ACHK

# Then and Now

The most distant a memory, the blurrier it is.

If a memory was completely vivid, you would not be able to distinguish between then and now.

— Westworld (TV series)

— paraphrased

— Me@2018-01-13 10:43:04 AM

# 注定外傳 2.5

Can it be Otherwise? 2.5 | The Beginning of Time, 7.2

4. 即使可以追溯到「時間的起點」（第一因），所謂的「可以」，只是宏觀而言，決不會細節到可以推斷到，你有沒有自由，明天七時起牀。

（問：如果因果環環緊扣，即使細節不完全知道，至少理論上，我們可以知道，如果「第一因」本身有自由，那其他個別事件，就有可能有（來自「第一因」的）自由；如果連「第一因」也沒有自由，那其他個別事件，都一律沒有自由。

「第一因有自由。」

「第一因」根據定義，是沒有原因的。亦即是話，「時間的起點」，再沒有「之前」。而「有自由」，就即是「有其他可能性」。所以，「第一因有自由」的意思是，

「第一因還有其他的可能性。」

（問：如果有「造物主」，祂不就是那個誰，可以從宇宙之初的不同可能性中，選擇一個去實現嗎？）

「因果是否真的『環環緊扣』，有沒有可能，有『同因不同果』的情況？」

— Me@2016-03-15 08:43:58 AM

# 注定外傳 2.3

Can it be Otherwise? 2.3

— Me@2016-01-06 03:17:54 PM

# 注定外傳 2.1.2

Can it be Otherwise? 2.1.2 | The problem of induction 2.2

1. 當你的「相似事件」和「原本事件」的結果相同時，你只可以知道「原本事件」，可能是注定；你並不可以肯定「原本事件」，一定是注定，因為，你並不能保證，下一件「相似事件」的結果，會不會仍然和「原本事件」相同。

2. 當你的「相似事件」和「原本事件」的結果不同時，你亦不可以肯定「原本事件」，一定是偶然，因為，結果不同，可能只是由於「相似事件」和「原本事件」，不夠相似而已。

— Me@2015-11-17 02:02:03 PM

# 注定外傳 2.1.1

Can it be Otherwise? 2.1.1 | The problem of induction 2.1

（層次一的事件描述：）

（層次一的反證：）

（層次二 —— 準確一點的事件描述：）

（層次二 —— 詳細一點的反證：）

（層次三：）

（層次四：）

— Me@2015-11-17 02:02:03 PM

# 注定外傳 1.4

（問：你不是說理論的成本較低嗎？）

— Me@2015-09-07 08:59:31 PM

# 注定外傳 1.3

（問：不是呀。在量子力學中，即使有兩組百分百一樣的物理系統，即使它們獲得完全相同的輸入，都可能有不同的輸出。）

— Me@2015-08-04 07:57:59 AM

# 生命

「生命」這個詞語很有意思。

「生」，就是指一些可改變的東西，例如，「生活」、「生氣」和「生機」等。「命」，就是指一些不可改變的東西，例如，「命運」、「命定」和「命令」等。

— Me@2015.03.20

# The Magic City

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The second theme is concerned explicitly with technology. It is a law of life in the magic city that if you wish for anything you can have it. But with this law goes a special rule about machines. If anyone wishes for a piece of machinery, he is compelled to keep it and go on using it for the rest of his life.

– Disturbing the Universe, p.4

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2009.12.21 Monday ACHK

# 開山祖師牛 8

They were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Naturally they became heroes.

— Leia Organa of Alderaan, Senator

— Me@2013.10.16 18.20.42

2013.10.16 Wednesday ACHK