A. J. Ayer

Near-death experience

In 1988, shortly before his death, Ayer wrote an article entitled, “What I saw when I was dead”, describing an unusual near-death experience. Of the experience, Ayer first said that it “slightly weakened my conviction that my genuine death … will be the end of me, though I continue to hope that it will be.” However, a few days later he revised this, saying “what I should have said is that my experiences have weakened, not my belief that there is no life after death, but my inflexible attitude towards that belief”.

In 2001 Dr. Jeremy George, the attending physician, claimed that Ayer had confided to him: “I saw a Divine Being. I’m afraid I’m going to have to revise all my books and opinions.” Ayer’s son Nick, however, said that he had never mentioned this to him though he did find his father’s words to be extraordinary, and said he had long felt there was something possibly suspect about his father’s version of his near death experience. 

— Wikipedia on A. J. Ayer

2012.11.09 Friday ACHK

機會率哲學 2.4

The problem of induction 1.4 | 西瓜 6.4

這段改編自 2010 年 4 月 3 日的對話。

過去會發生的事情,即使已重複發生了很多次,也不代表,將來會發生。正正是因為「預測」將來,不一定會百分百準確,我們對「歸納法」,要有所防範。無論是在日常生活,還是專業工作,既要為最好作準備,亦為最壞作打算。

例如,你過去幾十年,從未試過有大病,不代表將來不會有。所以要事先買保險,以防備未來可能突如其來的醫療開支。

又例如,你的電腦在過去五年,從未試過有故障,不保證將來不會有。萬一有損壞,你一大堆重要的資料,會化為烏有。所以要事先定期做好備份,即是任何重要資料,在任何時候,都要有幾份複本,儲存於不同地方的不同電腦,以防備未來可能突如其來的資料損毀。

再例如,科學家發表的研究結果,並不會只是來自一、兩次的實驗,而是會來自輕則數十次,重則成千上萬次的試探,以提防視「偶然」為「必然」,以提防視「特例」為「通則」。

又再例如,一款藥物推出市面前,一定會經歷鉅細無遺、數之不盡的臨床測試,以減低造成人命傷亡的機會率。

— Me@2012.11.09

2012.11.09 Friday (c) All rights reserved by ACHK